Tag Archives: Coronavirus

COVID-19 Immunity

I’ve tried to resist the urge to write more about the COVID-19 epidemic. Afterall, there are only so many ways to say that we’ve done just about everything wrong that’s possible. Turning politicians and journalists loose on the disease was certain to make a hash out of a serious, but not world ending, problem. Even…


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False Positive PCR Tests For COVID-19

I got tired of writing about the problem of false positive tests for the coronavirus, so I gave up. Now the New York Times has suddenly become aware of the problem. When a PCR test is run the virus is amplified in proportion to the number of cycles run. Typically 40 cycles are performed. Thus,…


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COVID-19 Six Months In

It’s just about half a year since we recognized that the coronavirus had taken residence in the US and just about everywhere else. We took a while to realize that the bug was going to stay longer than The Man Who Came to Dinner. Though epidemics have been a feature of human existence ever since…


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Einstein, Insanity, and Models

“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.” This quotation attributed to Einstein, was said by him (if he really said it) in the context of quantum mechanics, where doing the same experiment repeatedly does give different results. But in the macro world the same experiment properly performed does give…


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The False-Positive Panic over COVID-19

The title above is that of an article by me published today in the Mises Wire. It deals with the problem of false positive tests for COVID-19 that will be found if a large population is tested which has a low prevalence of the virus. It also deals with the issue of frequent tests of…


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Athletes and the Coronavirus

Baseball, football, soccer basketball, golf, and for all I know tiddledywinks are planning to reopen, but not before testing their athletes daily for the Coronavirus. As I mentioned here earlier this month, the New England Journal of Medicine reported that the sensitivity of the tests for the virus is no better than 70%. Our “experts”…


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The NEJM Discovers COVID-19 Sensitivity and Specificity

If you’ve been reading the articles here about the specificity and sensitivity of testing for COVID-19 you are aware that we lack critical information about the various tests used to diagnose the disease. The New England Journal of Medicine has just published an article about the sensitivity and specificity of testing for the Coronavirus. They…


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Lubbock Has More ICU Beds Than Either Brooklyn or Queens

There can be no greater evidence of the disparity of medical facilities and outcomes than the comparisons suggested by the above title. You can read the three charts below. Note that Queens has more than 38 thousand cases of COVID-19. The county has 146 ICU bed for a population of 2.273 million. Brooklyn (Kings County) has…


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Coronavirus – From Panic to Reality

It is slowly dawning on the world and the US in particular that we are suffering from a self-inflicted gunshot wound to the head. We’re on life support. Our economic survival is 50-50, probably worse. How did we get here and where is here? I’ll start with the newest information which should come as no…


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What We Don’t Know About COVID-19

The simple answer to what we don’t know about COVID-19 is just about everything. The Johns Hopkins Tracker that everyone is following presents a lot of data, most of which is uninterpretable. Let’s start with the number of cases. The Total Confirmed is not really that, rather it’s the number of patients with a positive…


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