Tag Archives: COVID-19

False Positive PCR Tests For COVID-19

I got tired of writing about the problem of false positive tests for the coronavirus, so I gave up. Now the New York Times has suddenly become aware of the problem. When a PCR test is run the virus is amplified in proportion to the number of cycles run. Typically 40 cycles are performed. Thus,…


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COVID-19 Six Months In

It’s just about half a year since we recognized that the coronavirus had taken residence in the US and just about everywhere else. We took a while to realize that the bug was going to stay longer than The Man Who Came to Dinner. Though epidemics have been a feature of human existence ever since…


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Einstein, Insanity, and Models

“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.” This quotation attributed to Einstein, was said by him (if he really said it) in the context of quantum mechanics, where doing the same experiment repeatedly does give different results. But in the macro world the same experiment properly performed does give…


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The False-Positive Panic over COVID-19

The title above is that of an article by me published today in the Mises Wire. It deals with the problem of false positive tests for COVID-19 that will be found if a large population is tested which has a low prevalence of the virus. It also deals with the issue of frequent tests of…


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Is Herd Immunity to COVID-19 Present in Brooklyn?

An article from the Jewish Telegraphic Agency raises the possibility that the Hasidic Jewish community in Brooklyn may have achieved herd immunity to the Coronavirus. The insular residents of this community were criticized by Mayor Di Blasio for not social distancing according to the mandates of our medical masters. Their way of life makes such…


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COVID-19 Texas Update

You’ve likely heard that there has been an increase in cases of COVID-19 in Texas. That’s not accurate. There has been an increase in positive tests. Because there is no attempt to differentiate true from false positive tests, one cannot be sure that the infection rate has really increased. What can be done, is to…


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More Covid-19 Positive tests in Athletes

Sixteen NBA players have tested positive for the coronavirus of 302 players tested.  As I’ve mentioned, eventually they’ll all test positive as the country refuses to grapple with the problem of false positive test for the virus. Until our medical officials wake up, athletics are not coming back.


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Athletes and the Coronavirus

Baseball, football, soccer basketball, golf, and for all I know tiddledywinks are planning to reopen, but not before testing their athletes daily for the Coronavirus. As I mentioned here earlier this month, the New England Journal of Medicine reported that the sensitivity of the tests for the virus is no better than 70%. Our “experts”…


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The NEJM Discovers COVID-19 Sensitivity and Specificity

If you’ve been reading the articles here about the specificity and sensitivity of testing for COVID-19 you are aware that we lack critical information about the various tests used to diagnose the disease. The New England Journal of Medicine has just published an article about the sensitivity and specificity of testing for the Coronavirus. They…


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COVID-19 Mortality

Below are the latest CDC mortality rates for the coronavirus . The Five Scenarios The five COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios represent a range of possible parameters for COVID-19 in the United States. All parameter values are based on current COVID-19 surveillance data and scientific knowledge. Scenarios 1 through 4 are based on parameter values that…


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