Below are the latest CDC mortality rates for the coronavirus .

The Five Scenarios

The five COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios represent a range of possible parameters for COVID-19 in the United States. All parameter values are based on current COVID-19 surveillance data and scientific knowledge.

  • Scenarios 1 through 4 are based on parameter values that represent the lower and upper bounds of disease severity and viral
  • transmissibility (moderate to very high). The parameter values used in these scenarios are likely to change as we obtain additional data about the upper and lower bounds of disease severity and the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.
  • Scenario 5 represents a current best estimate about viral transmission and disease severity in the United States, with the same caveat: that the parameter values will change as more data become available.

Parameter values that vary among the Pandemic Planning Scenarios are listed in Table 1, while parameter values common to all five scenarios are listed in Table 2.  Definitions of the parameters are provided below, and the source of each parameter value is indicated in the Tables.

The new estimates of fatality rate released by the CDC are as follows for different age groups:

0-49 years old: 0.05%
50-64 years old: 0.2%
65+ years old: 1.3%
Overall ages: 0.4%

As the nature of this infectious disease becomes clearer several conclusions seem warranted. It’s worse than the flu, but much less severe than originally thought. Subjects under 50 years of age seem to be at very little risk of dying from the disease. We should have focused our efforts at the vulnerable and should do so going forward.

Closing the country was a terrible decision that should not be repeated short of a return of the Black Death. A cost-benefit analysis should precede not follow any government intervention. The government is much better at informing than it is at acting. The social and economic price of government mandated house arrest is likely to be with us for years or even decades. Ready, fire, aim is not an effective strategy.